Once a year, market analysis services provider BloombergNEF releases its latest Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO), a comprehensive report on the state of the transportation transition, particularly as it relates to electric mobility. In the industry, EVO is considered one of the most popular market analysis that always recognizes trends and reversals early. FOCUS online Earth was able to preview the number released on Wednesday and shows six important trends that analysts are paying attention to.
1. The battery revolution has just begun
Batteries are developing on two different fronts: one prices are currently collapsingon the other hand The market is flooded with technological developments. The main reason for the drop in prices is China. According to BNEF, the prices of so-called lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP) are: China fell by 44 percent last year alone.
LFP batteries are still a relatively new development in the electric vehicle market, but are increasingly replacing conventional battery types such as lithium-ion batteries. The world’s two largest manufacturers, CATL and BYD, both from China, have made major technical quantum leaps in the last two years when it comes to the range, energy density and safety of LFP batteries. This allows them to use their main advantage over competing battery types. they require less rare materials such as nickel and, above all, manganese.
BNEF ratings that LFP batteries will have a 50 percent share of the electric vehicle market in the next few years. This, in turn, further reduces the prices of electric cars and promotes their sales. Technical developments in China alone… an additional 23.9 million electric vehicles by 2035 take to the streets, the report says.
What could be good news for China and the transportation transition in general, however, turns out to be good news A problem for non-Chinese manufacturersIt will be even more difficult for them to create their own battery supply chain than they already are. And not all manufacturers in China will benefit from the battery boom. Bloomberg analysts point to massive overcapacity as one of the reasons for the price drop. By 2026, China is expected to produce seven times more batteries than the global market needswill fear a massive wave of bankruptcies.
2. It’s not just rich countries that can afford electric cars
“Electronic cars are no longer a phenomenon only for rich countries”., the report says. And in fact, countries like Thailand, India and Brazil Absolute sales records. in India alone, electric car sales grew by 40 percent last year, according to BNEF. Even the Chinese market, which remains the most important, shows no signs of fatigue with similar growth rates.
Analysts attribute the boom to an expanded product portfolio around the world more and more E-Auto:- Models in cheaper price segments in the market. Growth rates in South America and Asia may at least partially offset the subdued enthusiasm for e-mobility evident in countries such as the US, Italy or Germany can be considered, according to analysts.
3. The EV market continues to grow, but only at a slower pace
The market share of newly sold electric vehicles will increase by an average of 21 percent per year over the next few years, according to the report, with growth of 61 percent between 2020 and 2023. “Global sales of electric vehicles will continue to grow over the next few years, however the rate of growth is clearly slower than before– says the analysis. One of the reasons is that especially many Western car manufacturers have not yet managed to offer electric models in the lower price segments. The result: Even in 2040, more than half of all cars on the road in the world will still have a combustion engine.
This is bad news for the climate. In order for transport to be climate neutral by 2050, the sale of combustion vehicles will no longer be allowed from 2038, analysts estimate. Leading markets like Germany will have to exit earlier, in the early 2030s. Most likely, only the Nordic countries will be ready by 2038, the report says.
To achieve climate goals. Therefore, policy should intervene more strongly in the market, the report says. The report did not specify possible instruments, but many industrialized countries already have subsidies for the purchase of electric cars, and gasoline is already subject to CO2 taxes or emissions trading. In the European Union, from 2035, the sale of new internal combustion engines must be stopped until they can be powered exclusively by electronic fuel. However, after the weekend’s European elections, in which right-wing parties won, the output of the combustion engine is shaking again.
In any case, the report criticizes, policy is currently moving in the opposite direction in terms of regulation, for example with punitive tariffs on electric car imports from China. The US government has already accepted such tariffs, and so has the EU Commissionat such punitive rates threatened Beijing. “Governments that want to boost domestic production at the expense of faster decarbonisation must think carefully about their priorities” warns Alexandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BNEF. “The goal of zero-emission transport by 2050 is still within reach, but much faster progress is needed.”
4. Power surges don’t just affect cars
One of the most surprising developments in the field of transport. Battery development for heavy-duty vehicles is moving faster than expected. Electric trucks are used for many applications commercially competitive already in 2030 analysts estimate. Almost half of all new trucks sold in 2040 will be electric.
The reason for the wonderful progress is primarily technological developments in the field of batteries, which enable longer distances. It is also important. strict policy constraints that encourage manufacturers and fleet operators to take action. “Truck manufacturers are facing rapid technological transformationagainst the backdrop of stringent climate targets In Europe and the US,” says BNEF’s head of shipping, Nicholas Soulopoulos. “The speed of this change will be unprecedented for the industry, but to meet the Paris climate goals, the production of zero-emission cars must become faster.”
Development is even faster in local public transport such as city buses. According to BMEF estimates Electric city buses will already account for 60 percent of bus sales by 2030, in 2040 the proportion will reach 83 percent. Electrification of local public transport is happening not only in rich industrialized countries, but all over the world. Nigeria’s Lagos state, for example, wants to put a total of 12,000 electric buses on the road over the next seven years with Chinese help.
In any case, other transport options, which are hardly relevant in Germany, also play a role in emerging developing countries. And the fastest progress here is the shift to electric mobility. For example, with three-wheelers, especially rickshaws. 80 percent of three-wheelers sold last year had an electric motor, says the analysis. Therefore, rickshaws are currently the only transport sector that will succeed in becoming climate neutral by 2050.
5. The hybrid car is celebrating its comeback
The hybrid drive has often been declared dead as an unnecessary bridging technology with few advantages over e-mobility. Customers apparently see it differently. there is a product with offensively cheap models, especially in China. Resurgence of plugin sales launched, says the analysis. Thus, Europe has been replaced as the leading market for hybrid cars. The main difference. Chinese manufacturers equip their hybrid models with more powerful batteries than their European and American competitors, the authors write. In Western models, the battery is designed more as a supplement to the combustion engine, as well as to meet fleet restrictions.
However, it remains to be seen if the hybrid comeback will continue. “Although the hybrid engine is seen as a bridging technology to a zero-emissions future, over-reliance on hybrid models also carries risks,” the authors write. The most important question. Are customers buying their hybrids as an alternative to a combustion engine model or an electric vehicle? Depending on the situation, hybrids can speed up or slow down the transportation transition.
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6. Electric car drivers are driving more miles than expected
One of the biggest concerns that prevents potential customers from buying an electric car is the so-called “range anxiety”, the fear that the still low range of electric mobility is not enough to cover certain distances. Who wants to be half-hearted? However, the BNEF report shows that frequent drivers in particular are increasingly relying on electric vehicles: In Netherlands For example, the average electric car covers 56 percent more miles per year than the average electric car, a difference of 66 percent.
BNEF attributes the surprising values mainly to the fact that electric vehicles are becoming increasingly attractive, especially for commuters. “High rate of electric vehicle usage among commuters is a strong signal that there is a demand for these cars,” the report says. However, there is one notable exception: the United States. There, an electric car travels an average of 38 percent fewer kilometers than a combustion engine. According to the analysis, geography always plays a role in such considerations, and likely the availability of charging infrastructure as well. The good news, however, is that “territory anxiety” already seems irrelevant in many regions of the world.