The dollar exchange rate at exchange points reached almost 41 hryvnias. This is due to the fact that Ukraine’s trade balance is deteriorating due to the consumption of grain reserves and energy problems. This opinion in an exclusive comment HAS said Alexander Parashchi, head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital investment company.
At the end of last year, Elena Sosedka, the co-founder of the first Ukrainian fintech ecosystem, Concord Fintech Solutions. predicted that in 2024 the value of the dollar may reach 42 hryvnias.
“The dollar exchange rate is completely under the control of the NBU, why does it allow (it to grow – ed.) First, our trade balance is gradually deteriorating, as the grain stocks of the last harvest are running out, plus we are.” let’s see that the trade balance slightly worsens our energy balance, accordingly, it increases the excess demand for the dollar, that is, this is an objective reason that at least there are market imbalances in the demand for the dollar, which are worsening. Parashchi noted:
He added that the National Bank allows the dollar to gradually increase compared to the hryvnia. “If you look at the chart, from the beginning of the year we see almost a similar straight line of the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate, that is, these are mostly targeted actions of the NBU,” he noted.
Parashi does not rule out that the exchange rate will reach 42 hryvnias to one dollar by the end of the year, plus minus 30 kopecks. “History will be plus or minus, we will pass to 42 by the end of the year, maybe if there is a surplus of foreign currency, the dollar exchange rate will go down,” he said.
Reminder
Elena Sosedka mentioned earlier that the future of Ukraine’s banking system is a subject of active discussion among economists and officials. One strategies The development of the system is the concentration of banking capital and the privatization of state banks. It should be understood that the banking system does not exist on its own, it is a “litmus test for the level of economic development of the country and the trends developed in it”. Therefore, among the important problems facing the banking system now, the expert noted the provision of clear and uniform rules for the banking sector, for example, effective monitoring of banking transactions and other important conditions for the development of the sector.
In general, Elena Sosedka believes that the banking sector of Ukraine needs changes, especially when implementing the concept Open banking-2025, which is a completely new model for our market. Moreover, the mentioned questions refer not only to legal, but also to technical aspects, for example, the unified standards and methods of technical process control. This is particularly important for the implementation of the same concept of open banking, which was approved by the National Bank of Ukraine.